Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Will the big three automakers still be the big three after this bear market?

The latest tragedies of the bear market are Lehman and Merrill Lynch. AIG got saved in the final hours. Could you imagine what would have happened if AIG had gone down? I think we are on the verge of an economic depression - not a recession. And that means there is much more that can happen.

I think and analysts agree that Chrysler, Ford and GM are all in serious trouble. Just like some of the biggest banks and insurance companies fell and some came close (hint to the wise - others may still and probably will fall) so will at least one of the big three automakers. They are all in worse shape than the banks and have been losing money for years prior to this latest economic downturn.

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Consumers are putting off any unnecessary purchases and are finding it very hard to get approved for credit except for those with exceptional AAA credit. The dark clouds, vultures and blow flies are circling Detroit and the big three. It is most likely inevitable that one will fall, but hard to tell which one will fall first. Will it be Chrysler? Without Iacocca they just haven't been the same. It's like Limp Biscuit without the biscuit, just limp.

Chrysler had some great times with the minivan and such, but it hasn't got much left. I think they will be first. GM has some serious problems and so does Ford with their finacial numbers and there are no profits at all. I wonder what kind of pay the executives are taking while their companies are outright falling hard? Well, only time will tell and soon.

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Anonymous said...

Here's something I was sent in my email today. This might explain why the big three are going down and fast:

RATTLED WALL STREET ROILS AUTO LENDERS, DEALERS:The turmoil on Wall Street is creating a two-tier system among auto dealerships and captive finance companies, industry executives say. Those in the upper echelon -- largely associated with import brands -- are finding it easier to finance inventories and make car loans. Meanwhile, highly leveraged dealerships and captives with weaker balance sheets -- likely associated with Detroit 3 brands -- are scrambling for credit and paying more when they find it.
Automotive News, September 16, 2008

Anonymous said...

It looks like GM and Chrysler may merge soon and that would leave the big three as the big two. Then its a question of what happens to Ford and will it survive or end up as another buyout? I think a Japanese, Chinese or even Indian company with good financials could find Ford as a great acquisition and at a great price. It would give them instant access to the American market and reduce any worries of tarriffs and such.